Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.020557 0.023321 0.026342 0.029894 0.033960 0.038475 0.043876
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.015812 0.019456 0.023795 0.029360 0.036332 0.044808 0.055943
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.013308 0.017280 0.022286 0.029091 0.038152 0.049873 0.066296
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.011555 0.015671 0.021104 0.028850 0.039696 0.054462 0.076297
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.010543 0.014852 0.020773 0.029577 0.042462 0.060824 0.089318
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.009429 0.013727 0.019844 0.029282 0.043644 0.064951 0.099464
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.008854 0.013293 0.019823 0.030252 0.046717 0.072099 0.114930
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.007880 0.012151 0.018616 0.029258 0.046612 0.074279 0.122687
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.007168 0.011334 0.017812 0.028782 0.047229 0.077594 0.132592
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.006421 0.010387 0.016706 0.027689 0.046681 0.078877 0.139081
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.006185 0.010243 0.016876 0.028719 0.049805 0.086667 0.157944
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005963 0.010098 0.017022 0.029706 0.052932 0.094751 0.178272
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005701 0.009872 0.017025 0.030470 0.055789 0.102752 0.199657
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005276 0.009324 0.016418 0.030074 0.056463 0.106774 0.213782
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004913 0.008851 0.015902 0.029787 0.057294 0.111149 0.229119
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004591 0.008427 0.015435 0.029541 0.058166 0.115673 0.245298
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004428 0.008285 0.015478 0.030286 0.061092 0.124650 0.272235
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004149 0.007898 0.015020 0.029983 0.061819 0.129110 0.289647
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004044 0.007838 0.015192 0.030978 0.065377 0.139988 0.323232
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.003726 0.007331 0.014434 0.029958 0.064470 0.140959 0.333446
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003491 0.006973 0.013948 0.029471 0.064682 0.144446 0.350205
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003212 0.006505 0.013201 0.028349 0.063350 0.144237 0.357679
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003160 0.006505 0.013429 0.029405 0.067140 0.156466 0.398708